{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "id": "scenario:robust-risk:drfsp-v1",
  "status": "field_trial",
  "title": "When the average hides a rare failure",
  "description": "A deterministic conceptual scenario for comparing prevalence-weighted mean risk with worst-environment risk. It is not a paper replication or a new experimental result.",
  "rare_environment_id": "code",
  "prevalence": {
    "minimum": 0.01,
    "maximum": 0.3,
    "step": 0.01,
    "default": 0.05
  },
  "remainder_split": {
    "prose": 0.7,
    "dialogue": 0.3
  },
  "environments": [
    {
      "id": "prose",
      "label": "Common prose"
    },
    {
      "id": "dialogue",
      "label": "Dialogue"
    },
    {
      "id": "code",
      "label": "Code"
    }
  ],
  "candidates": [
    {
      "id": "frequency_first",
      "label": "Frequency-first",
      "losses": {
        "prose": 0.08,
        "dialogue": 0.12,
        "code": 0.84
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "robust_capacity",
      "label": "Robust capacity",
      "losses": {
        "prose": 0.14,
        "dialogue": 0.18,
        "code": 0.27
      }
    }
  ],
  "expected_checkpoints": {
    "default_mean_selected": "frequency_first",
    "worst_selected": "robust_capacity",
    "break_even_share": 0.09523809523809525,
    "above_crossover_share": 0.15,
    "above_crossover_mean_selected": "robust_capacity"
  },
  "concept_ids": [
    "concept:quantities-ratios-and-scale",
    "concept:probability-as-evidence",
    "concept:learning-systems-and-evaluation"
  ],
  "links": {
    "news": "https://ephemerent.com/news/drfsp-robust-compression",
    "journal": "https://ephemerent.com/journal/article/distribution-robust-functional-subset-projection-for-structured-neural-network-width-compression",
    "atlas_lab": "https://atlas.ephemerent.com/labs/robust-selection"
  },
  "source_ids": [
    "source:atlas-method-v2",
    "source:drfsp-paper-v3"
  ],
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "content_hash": "4b8c275c0086b41948ae0bc474a63bf0e552353d4d39a37698d4a760917adcbe"
}